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Saturday’s top 5 picks including Padres vs Mets

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On the first Saturday after the All-Star break, we’ll have 13 MLB games (!) starting at or after 6:00 pm ET. Only three games will start during the day, including one at 1:10 pm ET.

To find the perfect bet(s), our experts have narrowed down the list to four games and five picks for the purposes of this article.

So, without further ado, let’s dive in!

MLB odds and picks

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox

To choose
Blue Jays ML (-140)
Book
BetMGM
pitchers
Alec Manoa vs. Cutter Crawford
First step
4:10 pm ET

Jules Posner: After losing 28-5 to the Boston Red Sox on Friday night, the Toronto Blue Jays are looking to continue their playoff run behind Alec Manoa early Saturday night.

The Jays were a bit of a shambles before the All-Star break, but have gone 6-4 in the last 10 games as they look to continue to distance themselves from the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card race.

While Manoa’s 4.10 FIP and 4.05 xFIP on the road this season may be a wake-up call, he was still able to show himself on the highway with a 2.47 ERA. Also, his opponent tonight, Cutter Crawford, has really struggled at home this season.

Even if Manoa gets in trouble, there’s still a good chance he can get enough attack to keep Jace ahead.

While both bullpen have had their issues, the Blue Jays’ handle has been solid over the last two weeks and has a big lead going into Saturday night’s game.

Jace’s moneyline is still available for a reasonable -140, which is a pretty good value for starting a Manoa. In addition, public money seems to favor this line as well.

Play up to -150.


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Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies

To choose
Less than 8.5 (-115)
Book
FanDuel
pitchers
Marcus Stroman vs. Zach Wheeler
First step
6:05 pm ET

DJ James: The Philadelphia Phillies have an important series ahead of them as they need to take care of business in order to stay afloat and possibly establish themselves in the NL East.

This business is the Chicago Cubs since Zach Wheeler will go up against Marcus Stroman.

Wheeler was the star of the Philadelphia rotation, with an ERA below 3.00 and an xERA. It matches the expected results. It also allows for an average exit speed of only 86.2 mph, which is in the 92nd percentile.

He also usually throws six or seven strong innings, which should be more than enough to keep the Cubs under control.

Stroman looked like himself on his last walk. He only allowed one hit and one run in 4 1/3 innings against his former New York Mets. He may be limited – in terms of serves – but the Phillies have a sub-average wRC+ last month against right-handed serves (98).

The Cubs weren’t particularly strong either (95).

This is the angle in this game. Since both bullpen should have enough hands to keep the game close, bet between 8.5 (-115) and 7.5 (-110). The only problem may be low performance in extra innings.


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Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers

To choose
Gemini F5 -0.5 (-130)
Book
DraftKings
pitchers
Joe Ryan vs. Michael Pineda
First step
6:10 pm ET

Charlie DiSturco: The Minnesota Twins open the second half of the year with a two-game streak in Detroit, and there’s no better time than a present to fade Tigers starting pitcher Michael Pineda.

Take a look at the Pineda Baseball Savant magazine page, and aside from walking speed, there’s not a single area where the 33-year-old falls short of the average. It has a double-digit rate of fire and a 46% hit chance.

The opponents are .308 xBA and .551 xSLG against the right-hander, both in the bottom percentage of all pitchers. And if that’s not enough, Pineda’s xERA is much higher than his actual ERA (6.22).

The Guardians beat Pineda eight times in two innings his last time, but beyond that, Pineda got lucky in 2022.

In this matchup, he equaled rookie Joe Ryan, who was a reliable helper in the Twins’ rotation. The 26-year-old has a 2.99 ERA and a 3.48 xERA and despite Ryan not landing a lot of punches, Ryan is limiting hard contact and opponents have compiled just 0.217 xBA against him.

The Tigers’ offense should also be quiet on Saturday. They are ranked 29th in both wRC+ and wOBA, and are ranked last in an isolated force. They don’t draw moves and were the worst offense in baseball, hitting just 3.14 runs per game.

All this to say that I love the Gemini on the first five runs tonight at -130. They have a clear advantage – both on the mound and on the plate – and I think the balls in Comerica will fly for Byron Buxton and his team.


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Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers

To choose
Carlos Correa over 1.5 bases (-125)
Book
DraftKings
pitchers
Joe Ryan vs. Michael Pineda
First step
6:10 pm ET

Alex Hinton: So far, Carlos Correa hasn’t had a good July, with the Minnesota shortstop hitting just .180 with two home runs this month. However, he has a great matchup to open the second half.

Tonight, Correa will face the Detroit Tigers and starter Michael Pineda. On his last start, Pineda was fired upon by the Guardians. He gave up eight earned runs on nine hits in two work opportunities and the outing saw his ERA go from 3.58 to 5.22.

Pineda is one of the worst pitchers in MLB in terms of strikeouts, average exit rate, xERA, shot percentage, and hard hitting percentage.

In his career, Correa dominated this match. He’s 9 of 23 with three home runs and five runs against Pineda.

In addition, Correa hit 10 of his 11 home runs against right-handed pitchers. Of course, if Correa makes a homer, he will easily clear all the bases he needs with four.

Comerica Park isn’t the most comfortable home run park, but the gaps in left and especially right field are huge. Doubling the gap would also help us.

In 13 games at Comerica Park, Correa is hitting .286 with two home runs, 11 runs batted, and an .835 OPS.

I would like him to take the best of Pineda again today.


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San Diego Padres vs New York Mets

To choose
Metz -1.5 (+140)
Book
DraftKings
pitchers
Blake Snell vs. Chris Bassit
First step
7:10 pm ET

Tony Sartori: We have the second matchup of this three-game series as the New York Mets of the NL East take on the San Diego Padres of the NL West. Having lost the first game of this series, the Mets should bounce back and win.

After losing as favorites this season, the Mets have an incredible 20-1 record in a row (95%). Of those 20 wins, the Mets covered the track 15 times (75%).

I expect these trends to continue as the Mets have to go up against left-hander Blake Snell. Through 10 starts this season, Snell is 1-5 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.

Snell enters this game in particularly bad shape as he continues to get hit on the mound. Over the last five starts, Snell is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.

Having practically lost his entire team this season, Snell’s problems likely won’t go away against a strong Mets lineup. Over his last two starts against the Mets, Snell is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA and 2.25 WHIP.

Also, Snell may not get much support in this game as the Padres are slated to go up against right-hander Chris Bassit. Through 17 starts this season, Bassitt is 7-6 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

Bassit’s performance is strong this year as he boasts .282 xwOBA, .215 xBA and .359 xSLG. These stronger numbers allowed Bassitt to start better.

Over the last five starts, Bassitt is 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.

I would lower this line to +125.


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