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Our staff’s best bets from Friday’s list, including Cubs vs. Phillies, Rockies vs. Brewers (July 22)

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After a shortened roster Thursday, Major League Baseball is fully back tonight with a 14-game All-Star Break.

There are a number of compelling matches and a few aces on the hill, and our analysts are all over the place, including: Cubs vs. Phillies, Yankees vs. Orioles, Padres vs. Mets, Guardians vs. White Sox, and Rockies vs. New York. Brewers.

Here are our top five bets from Friday’s MLB list.

MLB odds and picks

Click on a game to skip it
Cubs vs. Phillies
7:05 pm ET
Yankees vs. Orioles
7:05 pm ET
Padres vs. Mets
7:10 pm ET
Guardians vs. White Sox
8:10 pm ET
Rockies vs Brewers
8:10 pm ET

Cubs vs. Phillies

To choose
Cubs +114
Book
FanDuel
pitchers
Justin Steel vs. Kyle Gibson
First step
7:05 pm ET

Brad Cunningham: Justin Steele is one of the most underrated starting pitchers in MLB. His ERA is at 4.15, but his expected ERA is more than half a run down at 3.56.

It doesn’t allow a ton of hard contact (33.5% hard hit allowed), attacking opponents only have 2.9% barrel speed against it, and it only allows 0.296 xwOBA.

He mainly uses a fastball/slider combo that will work great against a Phillies lineup that is 13th against fastballs and 15th against sliders.

Kyle Gibson has been very average this season with an xERA of 4.25. His last two starts before the All-Star break were really good, but in his previous six starts before those two, he missed a whopping 23 earned runs.

The main problem is that his main serve, which is a sinker, hits the tune of .354 xwOBA and .284 xBA quite well. The Cubs are one of the best teams in baseball against movers with a +25.9 mileage per season. Chicago also ranks first in baseball in terms of wOBA and wRC+ against right hand serve.

I have the Cubs predicted as -117 favorites, so I like their +114 value and would play anything positive.


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Yankees vs. Orioles

To choose
Orioles +135
Book
PointsBet
pitchers
Jameson Tylon vs. Tyler Wells
First step
7:05 pm ET

DJ James: Jameson Tylon has struggled for his last five starts. In all but one, he allowed at least three earned runs.

He will face the Baltimore Orioles, who were red-hot ahead of the All-Star Break. Tyler Wells did a great job with a 3.38 ERA and 3.41 xERA, so he’s totally up to the mark. In addition, Wells allows an average exit speed of 87.7 mph, which is in the MLB’s 71st percentile.

The Orioles did well against a right serve last month. The Yankees own 122 wRC+ to the Orioles’ 112. In fact, the Orioles have a slightly higher percentage of team misses: .438 vs. .436.

Baltimore should be more than capable of scoring early and often off Tylon. He was also great from the pen, finishing first in MLB with 3.03 xFIP to 3.22 for the Yankees.

After all, the Orioles should probably be close to the money in this game. Take them to +110.


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Padres vs. Mets

To choose
Metz -1.5 (+125)
Book
BetMGM
pitchers
Yu Darvish vs. Max Scherzer
First step
7:10 pm ET

Jules Posner: Max Scherzer has been on the warpath since returning from an oblique injury and is looking to continue that trend Friday night against the Padres.

Speaking of trends, the Mets offense has struggled with the RHP at home over the last couple of weeks. However, they are still the fourth-best offense against the RHP at home in MLB during the season, so they may be associated with a positive regression.

They could have a good opportunity against Yu Darvish, who has been far below average on the road this season. This season, Darvish has posted a 5.25 ERA, 4.08 FIP and 4.09 xFIP over 48 road innings. This season, he just couldn’t get comfortable away from Petko Park.

In addition, the Padres’ bullpen plummeted right before the All-Star break, finishing third in staff ERA two weeks before the break.

The Padres are still a good team, but the pitching is heavily favoring the Mets, and their money line isn’t surprisingly valuable today.

Their running line is currently in the +125 region, and if it stays in that range, it’s worth taking the risk of supporting them and Scherzer.


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Guardians vs. White Sox

To choose
Guardians F5 (+125) and full game (+135)
Book
PointsBet / WynnBET
pitchers
Cal Quantrill vs. Lucas Giolito
First step
8:10 pm ET

Sean Zerillo: I predicted the Guardians as minor underdogs for the first five innings (prediction +113, implied 47%) and the entire game (prediction +108, implied 48.1%). You can place these bets up to +122 (45% implied) and +117 (46.1% implied), with either bet giving you more than a two percent edge over my simulated line.

Cleveland has advantages in the bullpen (9th in xFIP, 10th in K-BB% vs. 11th and 13th for Chicago) and defensively (8th in defensive runs saved, 6- ranked above average in strikeouts; compared to 21st and 24th for Chicago). In addition, the Guardians offense (107 wrC+, 8th) fared much better against a right serve than the White Sox (93 wRC+, 22nd). However, I model these offensive units on a level.

I don’t see much difference between Cal Quantrill (4.52 xERA, 4.65 xFIP, 4.81 SIERA) and Lucas Giolito (4.49 xERA, 3.66 xFIP, 3.61 SIERA) as the market demands. Jolito’s fastball speed has averaged over 94 mph for the past three seasons, but this year his speed dropped to 93 mph and dropped further to 92.4 mph and 91.9 mph in his two latest games.

Giolito’s zonal rate (40%) is at the lowest point of his career and he could allow walks and score deep against a Cleveland offense that is harder to hit (18.6%) or create a whiff against (8.9%). than any other. baseball team. Right-handed pitchers (17.7%) have a harder time hitting strikeouts against Cleveland than lefties (21.1%, 11th).

The Guardians flag a lot of underdogs here and represent my biggest predicted betting edge on Friday night.


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Rockies vs Brewers

To choose
Brewers -1.5 (-125)
Book
DraftKings
pitchers
Antonio Senzatela vs. Corbin Burns
First step
8:10 pm ET

Tony Sartori: The All-Star break is exactly what the Brewers needed as they lost three consecutive All-Star games. Our fellow gambler on Twitter (@CalSportsLV) found us a great trend for this game that we will be supporting.

Since 2013, teams that lost their last two games and returned from the break as favorites (-130) or better have gone up 17-1 in a row (94%). Of these 17 victories, the teams cleared the running line 11 times (65%).

We’re backing this strong trend as right-hander Corbin Burns should take the Milwaukee mound. Through 18 starts this season, Burns is 7-4 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.

While those numbers are clearly high, Burns has been especially dominant lately. Over his last six starts, Burns is 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.78 WHIP.

I don’t expect Burns to slow down anytime soon as his numbers are as outstanding as his surface stats. This season Burns boasts .258 xwOBA, .198 xBA and .309 xSLG.

In his only career home start against Colorado, Burns allowed just one run on three hits in six innings while scoring seven strikeouts. Burns should get a lot of support in this game as the Brewers need to go up against right-hander Antonio Senzatela.

Through 13 starts this season, Senzatela is 3-5 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Its performance is about as bad as it is in .371 xwOBA, .328 xBA and .488 xSLG calibers.

Senzatela has been in particularly bad shape lately. Over his last eight starts, Senzatela is 1-4 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP.

This game features the most one-sided pitching contest, and the Brewers need to be able to get back on track after the break. I would play this line up to (-130).


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#staffs #bets #Fridays #list #including #Cubs #Phillies #Rockies #Brewers #July

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