Job market could see big changes in July, AI-driven report predicts


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The labor market could see major changes in the labor market in July, according to a new report based on artificial intelligence. (iStock)

According to the June Employment Report, there could be a change in the type of hire employers are looking for in July. new data from Turn’s AI-based forecast.

In the next jobs report, Turn predicted that the unemployment rate will fall to a seasonal low of 3.5% due to a 64.7% increase in hiring in June, a trend that could continue through the end of July. Turn predicted a significant move away from pandemic-related hourly jobs such as warehouse jobs after hirings for traditional economic jobs such as retail workers and cleaners surged 210% in June.

The turn also predicted an increase in hiring for semi-skilled hourly and paid jobs in July, such as mechanics and nurses. While hiring for these positions accounted for just 11.5% of monthly jobs over the past 12 months, Turne predicted that these jobs would account for 22% of all new hires in July.

“There was a major transition to semi-skilled work in June 2022, with hiring and job growth up 171%,” Turn said in a report. “Nurses, pharmacists, mechanics, and class A truck drivers saw the biggest increases. Turn predicts that the trend towards semi-skilled workers will continue until July 2022.

The latest employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that total non-farm employment increased by 372,000 in June, while the unemployment rate remained at 3.6% for the fourth straight month. This was facilitated by an increase in the number of jobs in the field of professional and business services, leisure, hospitality and healthcare.

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Hiring growth expected here

In a study of the leading businesses driving the growth of semi-skilled hourly and paid jobs, Turn found 511 companies, each contributing an average of 3,300 jobs to the economy. Here are a few companies that Turn predicts will grow through the end of July:

  • Amazon: Growth of jobs for 261% in 7800 offices
  • Retail Solutions: Growth of jobs for 269% in 3900 offices
  • walgreens: 20% increase in the number of jobs in 5,300 offices
  • Great Clips: 12% growth of jobs in 6500 offices
  • Total dollar: Increase in the number of jobs by 51% in 4,300 offices

Additionally, here are the top five cities that are expected to have the strongest monthly job growth from June to July:

  • New York, NY: 18.8% job growth across 29,300 companies
  • Sacramento, California: 16.3% job growth across 3,900 companies
  • Seattle, Washington: 14.4% job growth across 8,100 companies
  • San Diego, California: 11.8% job growth across 7,500 companies
  • Arlington, Texas: 11.3% job growth across 4,800 companies

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What job growth means for interest rates

As the US labor market returns to pre-COVID-19 levels, rising inflation will boost demand for hourly workers, according to Turn data. A strong labor market, in addition to inflation, is another incentive for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Inflation is currently at the level 40 year high, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) up 9.1% year-on-year in June. This will likely see the Federal Reserve continue on its current path to raise interest rates again, despite the ongoing risk of a recession.

The Federal Reserve recently issued a protocol from the June meeting, indicating that another 75 basis point rate hike could be considered at the next FOMC meeting in July. In June the Fed higher rates by 75 basis points, the highest increase since 1994. This was the third interest rate hike in 2022, bringing the federal funds target range up to 1.5% to 1.75%.

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